The sixth country is Bahrain, which is currently rated C3.

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Iran is already in a recession.

Nonetheless, Turkey is not out of the woods yet, and its recovery could be disrupted by a global downturn.Countries that have a High (H) or a combination of High (H) and Significant (S) risks in columns 1, 2 and 3 are the most vulnerable along the external financing channel of transmission and, other things equal, would require the strongest corrective action to avoid a crisis in the event of financing becoming suddenly more restrictive.

But experts say two major trends have caused the current slowdown — and there’s reason to believe they’ll persist in the coming years.The first has to do with Trump’s signature economic policy.“A major reason for the elevated risk of recession,” says the American Enterprise Institute’s economic policy studies director, Michael Strain, “is President Trump’s deeply misguided trade war. The six weakest economies along the energy prices channel (those highlighted in light orange in Table 3b) include five countries which are already in the worst Country Rating category (D4) assigned by Euler Hermes.

That could add up to downward pressure on prices and weaker volume demand in the event of a global slowdown in the future.

Against this backdrop, we studied the main transmission routes of a global slowdown to individual economies and identified countries that are the most vulnerable along three channels: external financing, trade and commodity prices. Due to its role as risk manager, risk carrier and major investor, the insurance industry is in a unique position to promote economic, social and environmental sustainability.

These economies – including Romania, South Africa, Algeria and Oman – would be more vulnerable and should be monitored more closely in the event of a particularly sharp (and sudden) global slowdown.Sources: National statistics, IMF, IHS Markit, Euler HermesThe most pervasive trade effect is along the merchandise (goods) trade route.

Services receipts are taken into account in the Euler Hermes scoring indicators and therefore are reflected in the ability to cope with a downturn.As a starting point Table 2 identifies 45 economies with a GDP of more than USD20bn, as well as high ratios of exports of goods and services to GDP (>25%) and manufactured goods in total merchandise exports (>50%), as the most exposed to a global downturn along the (merchandise) trade channel. • The U.S. economy may not post two successive quarters of negative growth in terms of gross domestic product by mid-2019, although it will feel as if the economy entered a recession.

The analysis applies most of the economic indicators that are used in the underlying macroeconomic scoring model of the Euler Hermes Country Rating.

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